Wild Card Weekend- Ravens at Patriots - Round 1
Sunday, January 10th, 2010“An All Out Brawl Should Go Down To The Wire In New England”
Round 1 New England vs Baltimore

VS

Baltimore Ravens

The Game Changer- For all you casual football fans who don’t take it as serious as some of the diehards meet Ravens DT Haloti Ngata. Ngata is clearly the best player on this new look Ravens defense as his strength and speed over match anyone who lines up to block him. The key to this game for the Patriots will be scheming up a way to stop guys like Ngata up front when they Ravens go to their vaunted “3 technique.” Ngata is to the Ravens what Vince Wilfork is to the Patriots. To put it more simply when Ngata plays teams can’t run on the Ravens.

The Little Engine That Could Is Now A Locomotive- Anyone who participates in Fantasy Football knows who Ray Rice is. For those of you who don’t Rice is the Ravens running back who compiled 2,091 yards from scrimmage this season while splitting time with Willis McGahee. Rice is tough elusive runner who has great hands out of the backfield. Rice managed 7 TD’s but that number would have been higher had the Ravens used him in red zone packages. One thing Bill Belichick does is he takes away his opponents strength and you can bet that Ray Rice is at the top of his list for “guys to take away” in this game.

The Speed Guy- Ravens DE/OLB Terrell Suggs has a ton of speed coming off the edge and both Sebastian Vollmer and Matt Light will need to be on their A game if the Patriots are going to stop him. Suggs had just 44 tackles and 4.5 sacks this year because he missed 3 games due to injury. The Ravens like to use Suggs is a variance of capacities on the defensive side of the ball. They’ll stunt him on the line, use him in a 5 technique as a blitzer when the defense shifts to a 4-3, and they will most likely always use him on third down as a down rusher because of his ability to get to opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots need to be aware of where he is at all times and one good thing about this Ravens defense is that they have trouble with offensive lines that zone block and that is just about all the Patriots do.
3 Keys For The Ravens Offense-
Do what we do best AKA Get The Ball In Ray Rice’s Hands- Ok I haven’t seen every game the Ravens have played this season but there is one thing I noticed about this offense.Of the Ravens 16 games, in which they won 9 and lost 7 Ray Rice averaged 18 touches in each of them. When Rice touches the ball more than 20 times the Ravens are 6-1 with their only loss coming at the hands of your New EnglandPatriots when he got fewer than 18 they were 3-3. Ray Rice was second in the league in total yards from scrimmage behind only the Titans Chris Johnson. Rice may end up being the key to whether or not the Ravens can give the Patriots their first home playoff loss in the Belichick Era.
2. Let Flacco Be Flacco And Stay Under 30- When Joe Flacco attempts 30 passes or fewer the Ravens are 6-1. When Flacco throws more than 30 passes the Ravens are 3-6. Look Flacco is a good QB with a big strong arm but his confidence is still lacking at the NFL level. Sometimes he makes bad decisions and turnovers will kill you during this time of the year. John Harbaugh and Cam Cameron must let Flacco manager this game rather than win it and if they can accomplish that this game should be a classic fight to the finish.
3. No Dumb Penalties And When In The Red Zone Find Todd Heap- The Ravens are 3-1 when Todd Heap catches a TD. Heap proposes a tough match up for Patriot linebackers because of his good hands coupled with his ability to get open. The Ravens were ranked 5th in penalties this season andin their first meeting with the Patriots they had 10 for 115 yards. In a week 16 loss to the Steelers the Ravens had two touchdowns taken off the board because of penalties. Last week they had another taken off in a win at Oakland. It is clear that the Ravens are aggressive but they also need to do a better job of cleaning up their act because when you take point off the board because of penalties you are really cutting off your nose to spite your face. The Ravens can’t have another 10 penalties for 115 yards in order to win this game it simply just can not happen.
New England Patriots

Last Name Ever-First Name Greatest- In my eyes he is the Greatest QB of All Time as Tom Brady a 7th round pick from the University of Michigan has won 3 Super Bowls in his 7 years at quarterback with the New England Patriots. He is the youngest QB to win 3 Super Bowls before turning 27 as well as being the youngest player ever to win two Super Bowl MVP’s. He also holds the single season touchdown pass record with 50 in 2007. Brady has engineered the second most game winning TD drives behind only John Elway. He has second highest winning percentage in the playoffs at 14-3 (.824) trailing only Bart Starr who was 9-1 (.900). Most amazing of all Tom Brady ended this season with a record of 111-33 (.793) which is the highest winning percentage of any quarterback that has at least 100 starts and has played in the Super Bowl Era dating back to 1966. If there is anyone in the history of this league that I want running my offense in a 1 game season its Tom Brady.

The Run Stopper- Vince Wilfork earned his 2nd career Pro Bowl appearance this season as he will start for the AFC Team if the Patriots don’t make the Super Bowl. Wilforkis the key to the New England defense as he anchors the 5th best defense in the league which gives up only 17.8 points per game. The Pats run defense is ranked 13th allowing 110.5 yards per game andthat is also with Wilfork missing the last 3 games to a knee injury. Wilfork had 43 tackles and 1 forced fumble during his injury plagued 09 season. Wilfork is a massive 325 pound force who clogs up the middle andmakes it almost impossible for teams to use just 1 guy to block him. The Ravens like to run at team’s head on with McGahee and Rice but they may have to adjust now that the Fork is back in the middle of the Patriots defense.

The Opportunity Of A Lifetime- Playing in just his first season as a wide receiver Julien Edelman is facing the biggest opportunity of his life Sunday in Foxborough. Edelman played 12 games in his rookie season catching 37 balls for 357 yards a 1 TD. Those numbers may not seem like much but with the awful injury of Wes Welker last week Edelman saw his production sky rocket as he pulled in a career high 10 catches for 103 yards. Edelman is an elusive receiver who has a ton of speed with a cunning ability to gain yards after the catch. With Welker on the shelf it is Edelman’s time to shine and he could end up being the key to a Patriot Super Bowl run. We need to remember 1 thing though Julien Edelman is not Wes Welker andeven though he may step up he still lacks experience in both the league as well as the position.
3 Keys For The Patriots Defense
1. Stay In Containment While Not Allowing Broken Plays-The Ravens have made a living on check downs and broken plays this season. In their Week 4 meeting up in Foxborough earlier in the season they threw 15 times to their backs out of the flats. McGahee had the only score while Ray Rice had a huge 53 yard catch and run. This element is most crucial in order for the Patriots to have success on defense.They need to stay at home in their assignments andpossibly mix up different combinations on spying both McGahee and Rice which ever personnel calls for. If they keep these guys at bay they should find themselves traveling cross country to San Diego next week.
2. The 2 Down Set- The Ravens offensive line has had trouble all season long at picking up the extra man and a lot of that has to do with youth. When Belichick uses Banta-Cain in the normal 3 technique he is usually up on the line of scrimmage ready to blitz. Since the Patriots have switched over to this new 2 down man set Banta-Cain is primarily used as a down lineman. With Wilfork andWarren returning to action look for the Patriots to use them as down guys with both Burgess and Tully coming off the edge as linebackers. This technique is something a lot of team’s aren’t used to this because it is something that disguises both man and zone coverages all down field. When 2 guys are on the line the other 9 look like they are back in coverage which could disturb a young QB like Flacco because he may not audible out into the right call. The only problem is that this type of defense can’t be used as the primary package all game long like it was against Buffalo and Carolina because the Ravens have 2 running backs that can run hard. Therefore, the Pats need to pick their spots without overloading this set.
3. Tough Physical Play By The DB’s- In Week 4 the Patriots defensive backs played one of the most physical game’s as they laid andabsolute beating on both Mason and Clayton from start to finish. The Brandon’s (McGowan and Meriweather) both had multiple big sticks and that game and the same must be seen on Sunday. Look for CB Leigh Bodden to take some chances by going for the ball because like any other playoff game turnovers will be key.
Final Prediction - New England 24 Baltimore 17- This is going to be an absolute dogfight to the finish and just like in Week 4 the last possession could end up being the game. Both of these teams have the tools to win and with this being such an even match up I have to go with the home team. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have yet to lose a home playoff game (8-0) while at the same time they have never lost to Baltimore recording a perfect (6-0) record. Even without Welker the Patriots offense still has a ton of match-ups they can take advantage of with the injury ridden secondary of the Ravens. Moss has a huge height advantage over Foxworth and in this match up Randy has certainly gotten the better of the young CB by torching him for 3 touchdowns in 3 games. Look for Ben Watson to have some success down the same especially with Ray Lewis having to match up with him down field. The Patriots baited the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 by staying away from Watson all game long before hitting him for two late TD’s to barely escape with the win. Like I said earlier it won’t be easy but after watching a ton of film on both these teams I like the Patriots to move to San Diego next week.
Matthew Giacoppo- The Brain



















